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Biology Group Research Article 記事ID: igmin229

The Influence of Dynamical Downscaling and Boundary Layer Selection on Egypt’s Potential Evapotranspiration using a Calibrated Version of the Hargreaves-samani Equation: RegCM4 Approach

Environmental Sciences DOI10.61927/igmin229
Samy A Anwar * 1 and
Ankur Srivastava 2
Affiliation

Affiliation

    1Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Cairo, Egypt, P.O. 11784, Egypt

    2WaterNSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia

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要約

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is an important variable for monitoring daily agricultural activity as well as meteorological drought. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the influence of different options of the physical dynamical downscaling and boundary layer schemes on the simulated PET. Using the RegCM4 regional climate model, four simulations were conducted (two for each case) in the period 1997 to 2017. In all simulations, the RegCM4 was configured with 25 km resolution and downscaled by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. To ensure a reliable estimation of the PET, a calibrated version of the Hargreaves-Samani equation was adopted. A high-resolution product of the ERA5 was used as the observational dataset. Results showed that the simulated PET is insensitive either to the dynamical downscaling or the boundary layer options. Concerning the annual climatological cycle, the RegCM4’s performance varies with month and location. Quantitatively, a root mean square error lies between 1 mm and 1.6 mm day-1, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between 0.2 and 0.6, and the coefficient of determination between 0.5 and 0.75. Additionally, the Linear Scaling (LS) method showed its added value in the evaluation/validation periods. In conclusion, the RegCM4 can be used to develop a regional PET map of Egypt using the LS either in the present climate or under different future scenarios.

数字

The figure shows the surface elevation of Egypt (in meters). The red dots indicate the location of the ten locations for evaluating the RegCM’s performance. Figure 1: The figure shows the surface elevation of Egypt (i...
Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998–2017 (PET; in mm day−1) for MAM season in the first row (a − f); JJA in the second (g − l); SON in the third (m − r); and DJF in the fourth (s − x). For each row, DIR is on the left, followed by NEST; ERA5 is the third from the left, DIR minus ERA5, NEST minus ERA5, and the difference between NEST and DIR. Significant difference/bias is indicated in black dots using a student t-test with alpha equal to 5%. Figure 2: Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998...
Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998–2017 (PET; in mm day−1) for MAM season in the first row (a − f); JJA in the second (g − l); SON in the third (m − r); and DJF in the fourth (s − x). For each row, HOLT is on the left, followed by UW; ERA5 is the third from left, HOLT minus ERA5, UW minus ERA5, and the difference between UW and HOLT. Significant difference/bias is indicated in black dots using a student t-test with alpha equal to 5%. Figure 3: Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998...
Pearson correlation coefficient for each grid point for DIR (a for TMP), (b for RSDS); NEST (c for TMP), and (d for RSDS). Note that the range of 0.9 and 1 has been chosen after many trials to choose the appropriate range. Figure 4: Pearson correlation coefficient for each grid poin...
Pearson correlation coefficient for each grid point for HOLT (a for TMP), (b for RSDS); UW (c for TMP), and (d for RSDS). Note that the range of 0.9 and 1 has been chosen after many trials to choose the appropriate range. Figure 5: Pearson correlation coefficient for each grid poin...
Climatological annual cycle of the simulated PET concerning the ERA5 for the locations: Alexandria, Arish, Giza, Ismaila and Siwa. Figure 6: Climatological annual cycle of the simulated PET c...
Climatological annual cycle of the simulated PET concerning the ERA5 for the locations: Asswan, Asyout, Dakhla, Kharga, and Luxor. Figure 7: Climatological annual cycle of the simulated PET c...
Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998–2008 (PET; in mm day−1) for MAM season in the first row (a − f); JJA in the second (g − l); SON in the third (m − r); and DJF in the fourth (s − x). For each row, OLD is on the left, followed by NEW; ERA5 is the third from left, OLD minus ERA5, NEW minus ERA5, and the difference between NEW and OLD. Significant difference/bias is indicated in black dots using a student t-test with alpha equal to 5%. Please note that OLD refers to the simulated PET before applying the Delta method; while NEW is the simulated PET after applying the Delta method Figure 8: Potential evapotranspiration over the period 1998...
Potential evapotranspiration over the period 2009–2017 (PET; in mm day−1) for MAM season in the first row (a − f); JJA in the second (g − l); SON in the third (m − r); and DJF in the fourth (s − x). For each row, OLD is on the left, followed by NEW; ERA5 is the third from left, OLD minus ERA5, NEW minus ERA5, and the difference between NEW and OLD. Significant difference/bias is indicated in black dots using a student t-test with alpha equal to 5%. Please note that OLD refers to the simulated PET before applying the Delta method; while NEW is the simulated PET after applying the Delta method Figure 9: Potential evapotranspiration over the period 2009...
Shows various statistical metrics: NSE, R2, and RMSE for the locations: Alexandria, Arish, Asswan, Asyout, and Dakhla Figure S1: Shows various statistical metrics: NSE, R2, and RM...
Shows various statistical metrics: NSE, R2, and RMSE for the locations: Giza, Ismailia, Kharga, Luxor, and Siwa. Figure S2: Shows various statistical metrics: NSE, R2, and RM...

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