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重要なアップデート! 初年度の成功を踏まえ、記事処理料金の調整が 10 月に実施されます。詳細は近日公開予定!   重要なアップデート! 初年度の成功を踏まえ、記事処理料金の調整が 10 月に実施されます。詳細は近日公開予定!   重要なアップデート! 初年度の成功を踏まえ、記事処理料金の調整が 10 月に実施されます。詳細は近日公開予定!   重要なアップデート! 初年度の成功を踏まえ、記事処理料金の調整が 10 月に実施されます。詳細は近日公開予定!
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Abstract

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Medicine Group Research Article Article ID: igmin116

Wishful Thinking or Valuable Forecasts? The Value of Policy Rate Predictions in Sweden

Health Policy Health Economics
Åsa Hansson *
Affiliation

Affiliation

    Department of Economics, Technology and Society and SoeTech, Lund University, Sweden

DOI10.61927/igmin116 Fulltext HTML Fulltext PDF Cite this article
DOI10.61927/igmin116 Fulltext HTML Fulltext PDF Cite this article

Abstract

Economists often provide predictions about future interest or policy rates. In contrast to stock market predictions, these forecasts are typically regarded seriously and presented with a degree of accuracy. This paper explores whether placing more confidence in policy rate predictions than stock market predictions is reasonable. It begins by examining historical policy rates predictions in Sweden, comparing them to actual rates to assess their accuracy. The paper then delves into the discussion of how costs of mispredictions, such as sudden and unexpected policy rate increases, can and should be addressed. Despite the Central Bank making predictions within confidence intervals and the banking sector regulating individuals’ borrowing, the burden of unpredicted rate increases falls almost entirely on individuals. The paper addresses whether that is reasonable.

Figures

Mean monthly Central Bank policy rates in Sweden, 1998-2022. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 1: Mean monthly Central Bank policy rates in Sweden, ...
Actual policy rates and rates forecasted at various times, 2008 to 2025. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 2: Actual policy rates and rates forecasted at variou...
Actual policy rate at different times and the size of mispredictions at that time Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 3: Actual policy rate at different times and the size...
Coefficient of variation of predicting policy rates, 2008-2023. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 4: Coefficient of variation of predicting policy rate...
Forecast deviations from actual rates, forecasts between 2007 to 2023, percentage points. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 5: Forecast deviations from actual rates, forecasts b...
Accuracy, measured as standard deviation, for different forecasts, 2007 to 2023. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 6: Accuracy, measured as standard deviation, for diff...
Coefficient of variation for various predictions, 2007 to 2023. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 7: Coefficient of variation for various predictions, ...
Policy rate forecast and confidence interval, Forecast Nov 2021 Percent. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 8: Policy rate forecast and confidence interval, Fore...
Predictions within different confidence intervals, May 2014 to Feb 2023. Source: Monetary Policy Report, Riksbanken [4]. Figure 9: Predictions within different confidence intervals,...
Household debt in OECD countries, percent of net disposable income in 2021. Source: OECD [7]. Figure 10: Household debt in OECD countries, percent of net d...
Average interest rates for new loans, secured and unsecured, 2012-2022. Source: Finansinspektionen [5]. Figure 11: Average interest rates for new loans, secured and ...
Public debt in OECD countries, percent of GDP in 2021. Source: OECD [8]. Figure 12: Public debt in OECD countries, percent of GDP in 2...

References

    1. Sewell M. The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence, International Journal of Statistics and Probability. 2012; 2.
    2. Fama E. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance. 1970; 25(2): 383-417.
    3. Byström H. Finance: Markets, instruments and investments, Student Literature. 2020.
    4. The Riksbank (2023). Monetary policy report, various reports, https://www.riksbank.se/sv/press-och-publicerat/publikationer/penningpolitisk-rapport/
    5. The Financial Supervisory Authority. (2023). The Swedish mortgage market in 2023. https://www.fi.se/sv/publicerat/rapporter/bolanerapporter/den-svenska-bolanemarknaden-2023/
    6. (2023). https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/arbetsmarknad/loner-och-arbetskostnader/lonestrukturstatistik-hela-ekonomin/pong/tabell-och-diagram/genomsnittlig-manadslon-efter-sektor/
    7. OECD (2023) Household debt (indicator). doi: 10.1787/f03b6469-en.
    8. OECD (2023) General government debt (indicator). doi: 10.1787/a0528cc2-en.
    9. Posner P, Rosefield AM. Impossibility and related doctrins in contract law. Journal of Legal Studies. 1977; 1: 65-82.
    10. (2023). Continued great interest in debt restructuring. Press release Feb 2013, https://kronofogden.se/om-kronofogden/nyheter-och-press/pressmeddelanden/2023-02-15-fortsatt-stort-intresse-for-skuldsanering
    11. Hassler J, Krusell P, Seim A. Evaluation of monetary policy 2022, Riksdagtryckeriet, Stockholm. 2023.

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